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Reply to "What % return would you assume for next 20-25 years"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Historical returns are 8%. The past decade or so has been closer to 12% annualized. So, with mean reversion, you could conservatively plan to see 4-5% annualized for the next bit. That would be in a 100% stock portfolio.[/quote] Um, actually from 2009 to 2021, the stock market grew by over 17% on average per year. If you assume mean reversion to the historical level of 9%, that means more than a decade of 1% returns. And by the way, that one percent is nominal, so after inflation, approximately -2% returns for the next decade from the stock market. Excited yet?[/quote] You cherry picked that data starting with 2009.. should 1991 - 2021 or 2001 - 2021 and it's more normal. People can manipulate numbers to fit whatever view they have but data doesn't like. Long term, returns will be good as they've been the last 50 years.[/quote]
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