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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Enjoy it while it lasts. China’s future is unstable as the world deglobalizes. They have serious problems ahead with their zero Covid lockdown policy and a demographic time bomb.[/quote]

Could you explain more? This is really interesting to me- not being facetious at all. [/quote]

PP is taking two real problems but overstating their long term impact on the Chinese economy.  First, China has a fairly draconian lockdown policy to prevent Covid.  When infections crop up, they lock-down nearly all activity in the area.  In part this is due to poor vaccination rates and a poorly performing vaccine (Sinovac).  While these occasional shutdowns impact Chinese exports to some degree,  There's no real reason to believe they will have a long term impact on the Chinese economy, assuming we don't see a more deadly, resistant covid mutation emerge.

The demographic time bomb refers to two problems that came out of the one-child per family policy.  First, there are more boys than girls.  Given the cultural preference for boys, more girls were placed for adoption or in the worst cases there were instances of infanticide.  This skewed the population to around 1% more boys than you might otherwise expect.  The issue is even worse in India (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/). It's unfortunate and will probably cause a certain degree of social instability, but won't seriously impact the economy.

The larger problem is that the (former) policy limiting families to one child is a nightmare because eventually it drastically skews the demographics of the population to having many more older, non-working people than younger people.  This does have the potential to negatively impact China's ability to supply the world cheap exports, but in all likelihood they will find solutions or textile manufacturing will move to India, Vietnam, or other places.  China still has a massively large population of low cost labor to draw upon, even as they wrestle with these demographic issues, and every incentive to further automate if labor supply becomes constrained.  [/quote]

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