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[quote=BlueFredneck]We're assuming that: 
1) states initially certified results 
2) the December flurry of lawsuits went down in flames as before. 
3) no evidence of actual fraud emerged.

Remember, New!Congress has already been seated.

I think Perdue's term had ended pending results of the election. Loeffler got to stick around, since she was filling out a term that naturally expired on 1/3/2023. Perdue had to go back home since his term had already expired and his re-election was not yet done. So ... raw #'s, barring any illness or such:

House Raw #s: D 222, R 213 
Senate Raw #s: R 51, D 48 
House delegations by state: R 30, D 19, Split 1 (several R delegations do have members that voted to certify the election, so it's not as impregnable as it might seem). I think IA had a House member that hadn't been seated just yet.

I'm assuming your POD (point of departure) is January 6, Pence says some mumbo-jumbo about electors in several states (enough to prevent Biden from reaching 270). There is NO violent storming of the Capital at least not here. I don't know how openly it's known by Congress, law enforcement, DoD, etc., etc., that there's a few hundred well-armed militia types prepared to move in "if necessary."

Democrats demand a vote to halt the counting. I know they'd have won in the House and I can't see Romney or Murkowski sitting on their hands (could this be filibustered?)

Lawsuits are filed within minutes, both by Pence asserting his right to refuse to certify the results, and by Democrats asserting Pence was going off script.

Never Trump Republicans angrily denounce everything involved with this. McConnell stays quiet (for now).

A motion to impeach Trump and Pence is filed and passes the House by the end of the day, probably with 30-40 Republicans joining in this time.

Multiple Cabinet officials resign in protest. All living former Presidents issue a joint statement insisting that Trump step down at noon on January 20.

The Dow goes down 8-10%. Two circuit breakers are tripped. The Fed meets in all sorts of emergency meetings.

The bleeding in the Dow is staunched - by day's end - by the Fed issuing a statement that quantitative easing would be unlimited. The ECB, BoJ, and CCB all issue similar statements.

In the next 24-48 hours, protests emerge all over the nation, dwarfing the George Floyd protests in size, and with an eclectic mix of races, political viewpoints, etc. International media is horrified.

I would not be surprised if 20 million people turned up across the nation, with DC, LA, NYC, and Chicago pushing in the upper six figures.

Some turn violent, with a mix of "native" violence, police/alt-right provocateurs, and excess police force turning formerly peaceful protests into violence. In a few cases, police join the demonstrators. Again, all this dwarfs the George Floyd protests.

Smaller (relatively speaking) protests in support of Pence's move emerge.

CEOs meet with each other, political leaders, and other movers and shakers, insisting on some sort of order. Celebrities of varying degrees of influence wring their hands, with a few exceptions celebrating Pence's move.

I'm assuming the 12th Amendment debate in the House would start the evening of the 6th and go on through the 7th and 8th. If we go off voting to certify, Biden would still win, as WY, AK, SD, and ND all voted to certify, IA and PA would have a R "defector" each, and ID would be split. Several other states would need just one R to "defect" and split their delegations or turn them to the D's.

I suspect - but could be wrong - that Biden would win the House delegation vote by something like a 27-20-3 split.

This is another opportunity for Trump to have a rally and a possible violent storming of the Capital if things don't look to be going his way here. I don't see 1/8 ending in this timeline any differently than 1/6 did in OTL.

SCOTUS would've been forced to rule before 1/20. If Biden wins the 12th Amendment vote, SCOTUS would rule that was done all good and proper and the question is now moot. If Biden lost, it'd require a ruling on whether Pence's move to refuse to certify was legally sound. I *think* they'd have voted that it wasn't sound but it would be a 6-3 or 7-2 vote here.

Bush v Gore was accepted simply b/c Florida was *that* close and both parties seemed to indicate they'd have conceded gracefully. The closest state in 2020 (AZ) was a good TEN times the widest possible margin in FL in 2000 in raw votes. In terms of percentage, the closest state was GA, a good TWENTY-FIVE times bigger margin than FL 2000.

Inauguration - if there had been no large scale actual violence beforehand, I could see the establishment being caught flat footed and things turning real ugly, real quick as the die hard Stop the Steal people would've been emboldened and not shamed. [/quote]

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