Reply to McKnight's discussion with health officer about in-person learning

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[quote=Anonymous]It never ceases to amaze me how people gobble up whatever MCPS puts out.  I'm guessing none of the McKnight supporters are math majors?

"if 5 percent or more of unrelated students/teachers/staff (minimum of 10 unrelated students/teachers/staff) test positive in a 14-day period, then DHHS and MCPS will work together to determine if the school should be closed for 14 days and the students would transition to virtual learning."

Sounds good, right?

"It certainly might not seem like it given the pandemic mayhem we’ve had, but the original form of SARS-CoV-2 was a bit of a slowpoke. After infiltrating our bodies, the virus would typically brew for about five or six days before symptoms kicked in. In the many months since that now-defunct version of the virus emerged, new variants have arrived to speed the timeline up. Estimates for this exposure-to-symptom gap, called the incubation period, clocked in at about five days for Alpha and four days for Delta. Now word has it that the newest kid on the pandemic block, Omicron, may have ratcheted it down to as little as three."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/12/omicron-incubation-period-testing/621066/

"Delta was spreading 50% faster than Alpha, which was 50% more contagious than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2"
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

Omicron spreads at about twice the rate of Delta (e.g. about 100% faster).

So, if one child goes to school asymtomatic for three days, and during that time infects (let's be conservative) two children per day, how many kids have the potential to be infected by the time the school shuts down?

It's approximately 2Exp(n-1) where n = the day into the infection brought into the school, and faster the longer the infected child isn't removed from the environment.  In 14 days, that could be 8,192 infections.

Factors increasing this rate are parents who keep their children in the classroom without Covid testing or knowingly keep the child in-school even though they're Covid positive.  Remember, the criteria is "test positive" - and no test, no positive to count.

Factors decreasing this rate are kids not intermingling efficiently (ex. alienating the reckless kids), masking, good classroom air filtration or exit airflow, etc.

Given that January will be when all the children have been exposed to infected family members, then intermixing simultaneously when school reconvenes - the question is how responsible a decision is this?

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