Reply to High School Overcrowding 2024

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Current projections don't really show us needing a 4th HS right now. All the classes in the pipeline (current K and up) are around 2000-2100 students, that means we need about 8200 HS seats.

That's:
W&L 2700
Wakefield 2100
Yorktown 2100
HB 450
CC  800 (assuming they add 300 or so in the next 4-5 years)
Shriver/Langston/New Directions 100

That's 8250.

So we have enough HS seats, but just barely. It probably would be smart to grow Tech to 800 not 600 to give us a bit more breathing room, but there's not a mad rush to build more than that.

By the same logic, MS seats are also fine. That's 6200 or so MS seats, which is 6 1000K MS + HB. So also fine.

All that said, the boundaries need to be done really well. Because we need to fill all the seats to make it work.[/quote]

You are using enrollment numbers, not seat capacity numbers.  The point is that our current buildings are overcrowded (except for HB).
[/quote]

Yes, these estimates aren't accurate looking ahead to when today's elementary kids are going to be in MS and HS (when we're going to gain at least 250 to 400 students per grade over what we have now).

APS has delayed and planned poorly for the past decade.  They were going to throw everything at the Career Center (a terrible plan and not thought out at all) but of course have discovered that it won't work within budget.  They will be making a final decision this week though based on absolutely no plan.  I guess they'll be winging it and hope for the best.

So, I would look elsewhere.  APS in the next decade is going to be pretty bad for secondary students.  At any rate, don't judge based solely on which school is the most overcrowded now.  APS will be re-drawing MS and HS boundaries again this fall, and will probably re-do them every 2 to 3 years for the foreseeable future.[/quote]

Here are the kids currently in the system:
https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/U-MEM_281_Membership_Summary_All.pdf

Biggest class is rising 3rd grade -- 2110. I do agree that all our seats are used to max with the kids in the system.

I didn't know they screwed the W&L design. Why APS? Why?[/quote]

I don't think looking at the May 2021 enrollment is at all reliable.  A lot of kids (especially elementary) were pulled out of APS this year but many will be returning.  The Fall 2020 enrollment projections may be a better guess.  Rising 3rd grade is estimated to be 2,379 and rising 2nd is 2,343.  I expect we will be short on both MS and HS seats for these students.

https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Fall-2020-Enrollment-Projections-Report-Final-for-Website.pdf [/quote]

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