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Reply to "Your best guess for Obama's probability of re-election"
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[quote=Anonymous]The problem for republicans is this: In response to 2008, they didn't move closer to the center. Instead, they doubled down on conservatism, shrinking their base -- for example, they lost any chance of getting conservative hispanics because of their stance on immigration, though they shored up their support from the religious folks and tea partiers, who they already had. The Republican field is full of people who appeal to the base but not to swing voters, who will make the difference in the election. The only exception is Romney, but the base doesn't trust him. So Obama will most likely be reelected. If yesterday's economic news is the beginning of a turnaround, I agree that it will be a metaphysical certitude.[/quote]
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