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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele]Complete metaphysical certitude.

Not that I'm all that thrilled about it.
[/quote]

I would certainly like some of what you are smoking, Mr. Steele.  This is pretty close to a 50/50 nation and Obama's not polling very well these days.  Barring significant economic improvement, I'd put his chances of re-election at about 40%.  Unemployement goes down materially, and it's a toss-up.  This election is going to be about turnout, and you really don't understand how committed even vaguely conservative people are to voting Obama out of office; it's not the kind of thing you can discuss in polite society here in DC.  ;)  Independents are going to turn out and skew heavily R (60/40); this won't show up fully in the polling due to the Bradley effect, and it's going to be 2004 redux; Obama's going to look good in the exit polling, but the numbers won't really be there.  The D's are ambivalent and a bit tired of Obama; the R's view this moment as an existential crisis.  (BTW I agree with this.  From the conservative perspective, this one really is for all the marbles; what Obama would do in a second term--in terms of regulations, judicial and executive branch staffing, with wild cards such as a potential immigration amnesty on the radar screen--really would be impossible to undo.)  I think enough liberally inclined people stay home that it's not a close as it otherwise would be.  53-47 Romney in the popular vote; 2-1 in the electoral college.  You heard it here first.

All this assumes the Republicans do the smart thing and nominate Romney. I'd say Obama has about a 55% chance of winning vs. Cain and 60% vs. Perry, and it only goes north from there.  Perry, especially, will fire up the left and prompt huge turnout.  He's the second coming of Geo. W. Bush--except worse, which is something you and I should be able to agree on, Mr. Steele--and people will turn out in spades to vote Obama over Perry.  Romney is bland and competent-seeming enough that I don't think the Dems will be as motivated, and competence is a message that is going to resonate with independents.  [/quote]

That's a lot of fancy thinking, but right now the Republicans are slaughtering each other, the "existential crisis" is whether they can vote for a black man or a mormon, when it should be about social conservatism vs. fiscal austerity.  And poll after poll demonstrates that the GOP voters are grasping at straws.  They will support anyone who is not Romney.  That's why everyone but Rick Santorum seems to have had their moment of glory, only to plummet a few weeks later.  And no matter what he does, Romney sits at 23%.  You didn't like him last time, you don't like him this time.  The conservatives are going to hammer on the mormon thing and the fact that he invented Obamacare (and you know what, he did).  Romney has to emerge because you can't pick the eccentric candidate, the batshit crazy candidate, or the not so smart guy who hates social security but supports an open border with Mexico.  But that's where it all ends.[/quote]

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