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Reply to "Your best guess for Obama's probability of re-election"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Romney could pull a McCain and go off the deep end and/or pick a wing-nut Veep. That would motivate the Dems. Either way, Obama is raising so much money and the Republicans are wasting all theirs right now trying to take each other out. Also, if Ron Paul runs as an Independent, which he likely will, there go all your independent votes as well as some R votes. Not to mention how Obama might capitalize on the Occupy Wall Streeters to motivate for votes. It's gonna be Obama again. [/quote] All possible, but unlikely. Nothing in Romney's record suggets he is stupid or undisciplined; indeed, quite the contrary. Obama's money is, of course, quite helpful to him, but I don't think it will be decisive. He can run all the ads in the world, I think there are lots of people who just aren't interested in listening anymore. It will certainly help him build an effective organization, but he's not going to out-execute Romney in the basic blocking and tackling of campaign operations. (I agree Obama's money advantage would likely be decisive against someone like Cain.) Paul will not run as an independent, and he won't attract enough votes to make a difference if he does. Everyone learned their lesson from Ralph Nader. OWS is a flash in the pan with no real legs; an irrelevancy by mid-December at the latest, to say nothing of a year from now. [/quote]
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