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[quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele]Complete metaphysical certitude.

Not that I'm all that thrilled about it.
[/quote]

I would certainly like some of what you are smoking, Mr. Steele.  This is pretty close to a 50/50 nation and Obama's not polling very well these days.  Barring significant economic improvement, I'd put his chances of re-election at about 40%.  Unemployement goes down materially, and it's a toss-up.  This election is going to be about turnout, and you really don't understand how committed even vaguely conservative people are to voting Obama out of office; it's not the kind of thing you can discuss in polite society here in DC.  ;)  Independents are going to turn out and skew heavily R (60/40); this won't show up fully in the polling due to the Bradley effect, and it's going to be 2004 redux; Obama's going to look good in the exit polling, but the numbers won't really be there.  The D's are ambivalent and a bit tired of Obama; the R's view this moment as an existential crisis.  (BTW I agree with this.  From the conservative perspective, this one really is for all the marbles; what Obama would do in a second term--in terms of regulations, judicial and executive branch staffing, with wild cards such as a potential immigration amnesty on the radar screen--really would be impossible to undo.)  I think enough liberally inclined people stay home that it's not a close as it otherwise would be.  53-47 Romney in the popular vote; 2-1 in the electoral college.  You heard it here first.

All this assumes the Republicans do the smart thing and nominate Romney. I'd say Obama has about a 55% chance of winning vs. Cain and 60% vs. Perry, and it only goes north from there.  Perry, especially, will fire up the left and prompt huge turnout.  He's the second coming of Geo. W. Bush--except worse, which is something you and I should be able to agree on, Mr. Steele--and people will turn out in spades to vote Obama over Perry.  Romney is bland and competent-seeming enough that I don't think the Dems will be as motivated, and competence is a message that is going to resonate with independents.  [/quote]

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