Reply to Tips for daycare/camp young kids not catching/bringing home covid19

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]FWIW my kid’s daycare never closed, has been following the CDC guidelines, and hasn’t had any cases of COVID.

I think like we have seen in other countries the risk is pretty low.[/quote]

FWIW, this sort of anecdata is not worth much.[/quote]

It's that just anecdotal at this point.  Yes, there's been some COVID cases at daycares that have remained open (or that reopened), but there haven't been any reports of major outbreaks in US daycares.  The only thing I see is one outbreak within Canada.

So the available data does seem to suggest that risk of spread within daycares/camps is relatively low.  Not zero, but low.[/quote]

Exactly, we'll be able to assess the risk once we see lots of single infections at daycares; if there is no outbreak that is great.[/quote]

Again, [b]it may just mean nobody brought Covid to daycare, not that someone brought it but it didn't spread, which are two different things.[/b] [/quote]

Correct, and the reason is no one brought it to the daycare is that we had a stay-at-home order!

You need to understand that schools and daycares will accelerate the viral spread gradually as states open. 
You might not even notice a cluster, if all the families connected to the daycare are young and in good health, with no grandparents around, and no one is testing mild symptoms. 
What you'll notice is a rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in your general area. 
The only rapidly identifiable clusters are in nursing homes, because when these people catch the virus, most need medical assistance and some die. The need for medical treatment is the driver of testing and contact tracing in our society that has refused to test systematically.

So all of you people congratulating themselves that Covid-19 is less dangerous than previously thought based on these past few months are wrong. The correct conclusion is that we managed to slow viral spread by physical distancing.

[/quote]

Look, if you want to be a doomsdayer, that's your prerogative.  Obviously nothing I say is going to change your mind.

But to everyone else, understand that the limited information that is available gives us reason to be cautiously optimistic.  In spite of what the previous poster said, daycares have not been closed down.  In the DMV, families with essential personnel workers have been sending their kids to daycare for months now.  These children, I'll note, were at particularly high-risk for contracting COVID because their parents were doctors, nurses, EMTs, police officers, who were interacting with the public-- and in some cases, interacting directly with COVID-positive individuals.  In other parts of the country, states did not lock down as significantly and a broader set of kids went to daycares.

What did we see?  Again, in spite of what the PPs said, we didn't see zero cases.  Children, and in some cases staff, did become infected and did bring it to daycare.  Do a search.  You'll see plenty of stories, many of them using the term "outbreak."  However, what you won't see, at least not in the United States, are any stories described true outbreaks involving large number of kids.  The available evidence suggests transmission within daycares was quite low.

Sure, maybe this was just luck, but I don't think it was.  Now, of course as things reopen you'd expect to see more cases.  If we don't I'd take that as a pretty clear sign that the lockdown was unnecessary.  So the expectation shouldn't be no increase in the rate of change, but rather keeping the rate of new cases managable and deaths low.  I'm sure public health officials will be watching closely, and I think we'll find that relatively few transmissions will be traced back to daycares.[/quote]

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