Reply to Moco - no appreciation in the last 10 years

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]As a homeowner in Bethesda, i was looking through the data and was shocked at the fact that RE prices in this area  are basically flat since 2008-2009 and even lower than the peak in 2005-2006. It looks like it’s not even keeping up with inflation. Meanwhile prices in Arlington and Fairfax have gone up by 40-50% over the same period. We are moderately well off but not  rich by any means but this adds up to hundreds of thousands of dollars of home equity. I never expected the gap to be so large. We love our neighborhood and our commute to DC is pleasant but I can’t help but being slightly jealous. [/quote]

There has been appreciation in the last five to six years because prices dropped from the peak.  [b]What you’re complaining about is that prices haven’t exceeded the bubble prices.  [/b]That would not be a particularly good thing if they did.[/quote]

We are way past bubble prices in NOVA, and there's no sign of letting up.  I am surprised to hear that prices are flat in Bethesda.  That doesn't seem true to me.    [/quote]

Which means you’ll have another massive crash when the next recession hits.  [b]NOVA was devastated in the last one[/b].[/quote]

NOVA was most certainly not devastated in the last housing crash (at least no more so than any other area in the close-in DMV.  And it recovered rapidly.  You have no idea what you're talking about.   [/quote]

NOVA is pretty big. Manassas was down huge. Arlington not so much. Where do you fall?

I bought in 2009 in NOVA and prices were 40% below peak. [/quote][/quote]

I refer you to this document, look at the chart at the bottom of the last page.  Almost all of Fairfax was down around 40% and PWC/Manassas as you mention was down something like 60-70%.

http://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/studies_reports_presentations/The_Northern_Virginia_Housing_Market_Like_No_Other.pdf

Arlington stagnated and was dropping about 1% a year so maybe you think Arlington is “NoVa”?  I watched the statistics monthly and yes NOVA was down big.[/quote]

The whole country was hit hard.  PWC and Manassas are not close-in DMV.  From the article you posted:  "The bust period was deep but swift, and the recovery started sooner in Northern Virginia than in most other places in the country."

Not sure what your point is.  That prices went down during the housing bust?  Seems obvious enough, but okay, yes, I agree.  The housing market in close-in NOVA proved to be more resilient than just about anywhere else in the country, and with two of the country's biggest employers in town---the USG and now Amazon---close-in NOVA is about as close to a sure bet as you're going to get.       [/quote]

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