Reply to critique my PK-3 list

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
While you are right about listing in order of preference, if your preferences aren't strong this is useful information.

We did a list strictly order of preference. We got into our number 3 choice, because it was much easier to get into than almost every school below it. Those schools vanished, of course. Then we decided we weren't so hot on school #3 but it was too late. We almost got into #1 school but didn't.

Anyways, word to the wise be very conscious of things like this when you list, and if you really don't have a strong preference, either use proximity or follow this stats advice and list in logical order of chances, or some combination of the two. [/quote]

I'm Lottery Stats Person above, thanks for this.

Yes, list in order of preference.  But for expectation-setting, you should know when you enter the lottery with a list like the one in the OP, you're likely to end up in either Bancroft or in Dorothy Height.  Putting a difficult lottery school below an easier lottery school makes it really unlikely you'll get the difficult school.  (The first time we entered the lottery, PK3 for my son a few years ago, we ended up about number 300 on Ross's OOB waitlist.  I would have done the list differently that year if I knew the odds.)

Re: the Bancroft probability - I just ballparked it at 1 in 4.  All the numbers I gave above are technically the odds if you had put this list in LAST year, and thus just approximations for this year's lottery.  They're guidelines for expectation-setting and planning, not true probabilities.  And the numbers of slots and kids are small, so they are easily changed by fluctuations from year to year, etc.

Hopefully OP can look up the numbers themselves, if interested in figuring out how likely they are to get into Bancroft straight up, and how likely they are to get in later during the year.  It's probably also worth talking to Bancroft itself to make sure they aren't opening or closing any classes for next year.  (I vaguely remember hearing a rumor Bancroft was doing something new with ECE next school year.)
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