Reply to Pro/rel, club-centric -- how should youth leagues be organized?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The statistics on GD for last place teams in pro/rel leagues proves that pro/rel does not categorically eliminate all blowouts, but if the question is whether it reduces the number and frequency of blowouts overall,  wouldn't you need to look at more than just the last place teams?

It seems that average GD per game across the division would be a better measure of parity than just looking at the very bottom,  or very top for that matter.

The idea that some attempt to use tiered divisions based on competetive history should be made in leagues, just as it is in tournaments, is hardly a radical suggestion.[/quote]

Sure, but then you would have to then compare to closed leagues like DA or ECNL and the truth of the matter is, there is a finite number of possible wins and losses and they will simply find their natural distribution. [/quote]

OK, here you go.  Closed leagues: ECNL U16 girls, the bottom three teams in MidAtlantic division have the following goal difference, -19, -35, -31 (total -85); VPL U16 girls, the bottom three teams have goal difference of -19,-46,-56 (total -111); CCL (not available).  Pro/rel leagues, NCSL U16 girls, the bottom three in division 1 have the goal difference -3, -8, -37 (total -48); EDP South Atlantic Blue U15 girls as a proxy (they don't have U16 girls results available), the bottom three teams have goal difference of -7, -9, -18 (total -34).   Admittedly, this is a limited sample, but it strongly suggests that that promotion/relegation leagues more balanced than closed type leagues.   In this sample, four out of six worst performing teams in the pro/rel. leagues have the end of the season goal difference in single digits (which indicates that they are competitive), while all six bottom teams in the closed leagues have double digit negative goal difference.    [/quote]

U15 DIV 1 NCSL GD for the bottom 3:
-24
-22
-24

ECNL Mid Atlantic GD for the bottom 3:
-5
-20
-23

It looks like you hand picked an outlier?
[/quote]

OK, let go with what you picked, but add  VPL U15 GD:

-26
-30
-45

And EDP U15
-7, -9, -18

EDP is by far the most balanced league.  For EDP and NCSL there are two teams with single digit goal difference, for ECNL and VPL just 1, so you still have twice the number of more competitive teams among the bottom of pro/rel leagues.   Also, NCSL's stats for this age group do not really reflect proper promotion/relegation model because only one of their bottom three teams (Loudoun) earned promotion by finishing second in division 2.  The other two teams either had no history with NCSL (Great Falls) or should not have been promoted (ODFC, which finished 6th in division 2 in Spring). [/quote]

[b]Girls U15 2004 EDP South Atlantic Blue (8 teams in the division) 6 games. 
GA AVG
2.28
2.66
3.5[/b]

ECNL U15 Mid Atlantic (11 teams in the division) 15 games 
2.46 GA Avg 
2.65 GA Avg 
2.9 GA Avg

NCSL U15 DIV 1 (10 teams in the division) 9 games 
2.8 GA Avg 
2.7 GA Avg 
3.2 GA Avg

NPL U15 G (13 teams in the division) 12 games 
1.91 GA Avg 
3.9 GA Avg 
4.9 GA Avg

So, when compared in the same fashion to the others, accounting for number of games played and calculating GA on a per game average, no EDP is not tighter than the rest. [/quote]

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