Reply to Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]In the past few days, the forecast on 538 has gone from less than a 15% chance of Democrats taking the Senate to 19% today. It had been relatively stable before.

Similarly, the House forecast has trended in the Democrats' favor over the same short period (84% to 88%), after a long period of stability.

I wonder if this is a sort of polling wobble at the last minute, or if this trend indicates something significant.

Thoughts?[/quote]
I still think the GOP will hold the Senate.[/quote]
There are a bunch of articles out there that say Republicans really need to not just hold the Senate, but also extend their lead by 3+ seats, because that’s the only way they’re going to survive the 2020 election cycle when there are something like 21 Republican senators up for election. If they merely break even, or just gain one seat, then there’s a good chance they lose control in 2020. [/quote]

Yes, but holding it, even at 51-49, will let them get many judges confirmed.  They could get some through at 50/50, but Murkowski will say no to others. [/quote]

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