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Reply to "Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]In the past few days, the forecast on 538 has gone from less than a 15% chance of Democrats taking the Senate to 19% today. It had been relatively stable before. Similarly, the House forecast has trended in the Democrats' favor over the same short period (84% to 88%), after a long period of stability. I wonder if this is a sort of polling wobble at the last minute, or if this trend indicates something significant. Thoughts?[/quote] I think that there's probably a systematic error in favor of Democrats in most of the polls, but that the trend in Democrats' favor is probably the result of the mail bombs, Pittsburgh and the yoga class attacker. I think there are plenty of conservative voters in America who oppose violence; they've just assumed that Democrats have been hyperventilating for nothing about Trump's rhetoric. Now, they see the rhetoric actually leads to problems.[/quote]
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