Reply to WaPo article about school overcrowding

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[quote=Anonymous]Good that MCPS is finally hiring a consulting group to do forecasts properly.  Didn't appreciate the comment from MoCo councilmember Craig Rice that preferences are changing too fast for the forecasts to manage.  The forecasts have been underpredicting enrollment for years. It's just that MoCo has no solution, so they prefer to underforecast and then act surprised as if no one could have predicted the overcrowding.

[quote]Essie McGuire, Montgomery schools’ executive director for operations, said its enrollment projections are about 99 percent accurate at a county level. But she said the countywide calculations have masked changes in individual neighborhoods. Statistically speaking, she said, it’s also more difficult to predict the future at a more detailed school level.

The school system recently hired a consulting group to help update its enrollment forecasting models and respond more quickly to rapid changes, particularly in high-growth areas.

“We just really felt the planning and demographic and land-use environment has changed so significantly in Montgomery County in recent years,” McGuire said. “We felt it was time to look at the tools we were using to see if adjustments needed to be made.”[/quote][/quote]

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