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Reply to "Lebanon / Israel"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Israel hits houthis, kills Hazbollah successor (a tenure of hours) and Assad’s brother in 24 hours. Respect to them, but I don’t want American boys on the line for this/ Israel is spoiling for a war with Iran.[/quote] There won't be a genuine war between Israel and Iran. They are not neighboring countries. And neither is marching armies across Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Israel has the obvious advantage in projecting air power. But they are much more interested in destroying Iran's proxy armies in the region - Hamas and Hezbollah. They have their plate full. Iran, particularly the new president, has no interest in a genuine regional war. The regime is too weak politically to engage in a real war. It will merely be noisy for a while longer, but there will not be genuine military conflict between Israel and Iran. The only wild card is if Iran decides to cross the line and go full nuclear. That changes the dynamics in the region. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States may attack Iran very quickly if they choose to cross that threshold. But I don't think Iran wants that war. In the meantime, Israel's success in destroying the leadership of Hezbollah is quite likely to lead to a quicker resolution of the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran is significantly weakened. Their influence over Lebanon has been seriously degraded. Hamas too is weak and hiding in tunnels and among women and children. Once Sinwar is dead, Palestinians can choose how they want to proceed. But Iran won't be much of a player in Gaza anymore, so Palestinians are on their own. They have no other regional support. [/quote] Which Hamas decimated, Palestine will immediately collapse into civil war, as always happens when a government is smashed. [/quote]
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