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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Stop with the 40% attrition number.

You can't compare the average of an entire school system to one charter school. Apples and oranges.

A better comparison would be Latin to Basis. [/quote]

Yes, or Deal as well.  If Basis wants to promote itself as a premier public MS it should post comparable numbers to Latin and Deal.[/quote]

Comparing attrition at BASIS to attrition at Deal would be unfair.  Deal is a neighborhood school.  People by houses approaching or exceeding $1 million to attend Janney-Deal-Wilson and are thus much more committed to making the school work.

Comparing attrition at BASIS to attrition at Latin would be more reasonable, with the caveat that Latin has been around for years and thus should have much more stable enrollment.

The PCSB tracks re-enrollment rates for all DC charters as part of its performance management framework. Here is how the re-enrollment rate is calculated:

# of students enrolled both on 10/5 of last year and on 10/5 of this year
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# of students enrolled on 10/5 of last year - # of those students who graduated or moved out of DC

For details, please see page 32 of the PMF guidelines: [url]http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/images/2010-2011%20pmf%20guidelines%2011_1_11.pdf[/url]

According to the Post article, 443 kids were enrolled on 10/5/12 and 43 kids have left.  We know BASIS added 17 kids after 10/5, but let's assume the worst and that all of the 43 who left were in the original cohort of 443, i.e., that the 43 who left does not include any of the 17 added after 10/5.

So, at this point, 400 of the original cohort are enrolled, and if none of them leave before 10/5/13, the re-enrollment rate will be 400 / 443 = 90.3%

So how about Washington Latin's re-enrollment rate.  Well, interestingly enough, the most recent re-enrollment rate for the Latin MS is...wait for it...90.3%

Thus, the attrition rate BASIS has seen thus far in its first year of operation is comparable to the attrition rate Latin saw last year after many years of operation.  Furthermore, Latin's 90.3% exceeds the PCSB re-enrollment rate target of 57% to 90%, and Latin got 10 out of a possible 10 points on this leading indicator.

Of course, if more kids from the original cohort at BASIS leave before 10/5/13, then the re-enrollment rate will drop below 90.3%  The question is how much more will the re-enrollment rate drop?  Only time will tell...

Here is a sample of the re-enrollment rates of the other tier 1, i.e., best, DC charters serving 5th through 8th, excluding those that also serve PK through 4th:

Achievement Prep: 86.3%
Cesar Chavez: 73.5%
DC Prep: 89.4%
Howard University MS: 84.1%
KIPP AIM: 88.1%
KIPP KEY: 82.5%
KIPP WILL: 85.7%
Paul: 90.3%
SEED: 84.9%

Given these re-enrollment rates for tier 1 charters, it seems premature to make such a fuss over the attrition at BASIS.

For BASIS's re-enrollment rate to hit 85%, it would have to lose an additional 23 from the original cohort.

For BASIS's re-enrollment rate to hit 80%, it would have to lose 45 more from the original cohort.

For BASIS's re-enrollment rate to hit Chavez's rate of 73.5%, BASIS would have to lose 74 more.

P.S. The data can be found at [url]http://www.dcpubliccharter.com/data/files/2013_Applications/DC-PCSB-PMF_Mar18-web.pdf[/url].
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