Reply to When are NMSF announced?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?[/quote]

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.[/quote]

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.  [/quote]

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble  -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT  have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?

It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.
[/quote]

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.[/quote]

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.[/quote]
Doubling is a function of LCPS's smaller NMSF base. Using the above data, LCPS had 38 more NMSF in 2023 than 2022. That constitutes an 86% rise which sounds dramatic. But as a hypothetical, if FCPS had a rise of 38 relative to its base of 250, that would be a 15% rise. If you look at private schools, they might swing from three to nine NMSF in a given year, but we don't report that as their semifinalists tripling. When you have a small base, changes can generate big percent swings.[/quote]

My hesitation is that whereas 5->10 is plausibly small numbers, 40->80 doesn't seem like it is. And eyeballing the per county historical records, the variance doesn't seem to be super high. Alas, I'm very much out of practice with this level of stats. Anyone care to run the numbers to see how often we should expect to see a swing this size?[/quote]

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