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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?[/quote]

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.[/quote]

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.  [/quote]

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble  -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT  have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?

It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.
[/quote]

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.[/quote]

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.[/quote]

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.[/quote]

This is the primary thing keeping me from the explanation definitely being that a local prep outfit -- or outfits -- managed to get test questions. Again.

Let's try the theory on for size: Loudoun /Fairfax parents were able to keep some aspect of education going during one critical year during the pandemic, and LCPS itself did a particularly amazing job. Then the relative advantage disappeared for Loudoun -- because, after all, it was just one year. The FCPS numbers last year were artificially buoyed by FCPS parents intervening during that critical year, similar to Loudoun's, and then the general decline in Fairfax's education quality savaged local scores.

It doesn't seem impossible, but I am have a hard time believing it, in part because the parents of NMSF recipients in Loudoun and FCPS aren't that distinctive, IMHO, from the typical highly educated, well-off parents of NMSF recipients elsewhere. And I can't think of anything Loudoun did as a county during the pandemic that would seem particularly effective, relative to everywhere else in Virginia.[/quote]

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