Reply to Data Goldmine: YoY Enrollment Patterns by School

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Wow, interesting that the folks who say Maury is increasingly sending kids to E-H appear to be right! 27 kids went from Maury to E-H last year?? Only 12 from Payne though, which is interesting...

S-H has decent buy-in from across its feeders, if still quite Watkins slanted (27 L-T, 29 JOW, 56 Watkins). That's definitely a foundation to grow from though.

Jefferson... all the people claiming Brent families were going there in any kind of numbers? Not even a little. Sub-10. Wow.[/quote]

Current Payne 3rd and 5th grade parent here - class of 2022 at Payne was only maybe 17 kids - not because of exodus to charters, just a small grade. In general, Payne is a smaller school - only two classes per grade (except for ECE w/ 3 classes per grade) Current 5th grade class is over 40 kids and a good number of us will be at EH next year. [/quote]

Maury 5th parent here. Your 5th is the same size as ours! So you think at least 30 will go? I’m actually getting a little excited. [/quote]

Ah, interesting the 5th grades are the same size. Last year I think we had one 4th grade student leave for a charter, I am not sure if that will continue to be the trend or if we will start seeing the 4th/5th drop at Payne that other schools see.  I don't know all of the parents well enough to ask them about next year, but so far I have only heard of one child who will not be at EH next year.
Either way, there is a lot of positive talk about the school, definitely more than a few years ago. And like somebody else said, I think part of that is due to the Principal and the strong community they seem to be building. In the past few weeks we have been at the school for their Basketball Fever feeder event and their production of Moana, and our kids really enjoyed them.[/quote]

LOL. I can name at least five students in our charter who left Maury after fourth grade.[/quote]

Oh, sorry, are you saying you're at Payne. If so, I take that back. :) [/quote]

More Maury families will start to stay through 5th and EH. Probably most will jump for Latin, but Basis is not broadly appealing, and at this point, most will chose EH over the other charters like TR, ITS. [/quote]

BASIS is not broadly appealing?  What are you talking about?  BASIS is basically a who's who of Capitol Hill elementary schools. [/quote]

I have no issue with Basis and am happy for families who like it. But no, it is not broadly appealing. Many parents don't want it and would much prefer a solid DCPS MS.  [/quote]

Well the data says otherwise, but ok…[/quote]

Ask yourself how many people with a good middle school option go to BASIS. The [u]biggest feeders are Watkins [/u](17 kids) and Brent (a whopping 10). [u]People with rights to Deal and Hardy and Stuart-Hobson, and feeders for DCI, don't choose BASIS [/u]in significant numbers. It's N<10 for CMI and TR despite really low performance middle schools. Is BASIS more appealing than Jefferson and EH? Sure, to some people. But from (for example) Maury's 4th grade class, <10 went to BASIS and 40 stuck with Maury, despite BASIS making offers to 65% of its applicants. Similar for Ludlow-Taylor. So call me unimpressed. But you're outclassing Jefferson and Cardozo, wowie wow wow![/quote]

Wow. Where to start. 
[list]Watkins is a SH feeder, so you've effectively undermined your entire premise all by yourself.[/list][list]For SY 21-22 (last available data) there are [u]more kids from the SH boundary enrolled at BASIS than any other MS in DC[/u][/list][list]There are more kids in the Deal and Hardy boundaries (respectively) at BASIS than from the following boundaries: Ida B. Wells Middle School
Hart Middle School
Kelly Miller Middle School
Sousa Middle School
Brookland Middle School
McKinley Middle School
[/list][list]After Eastern, there are more kids at BASIS from the JR boundary than from any other DC HS boundaries [/list]
Does your opinion change when you are faced with "data" and not your baseless and unfounded beliefs?[/quote]

I am not PP, but Watkins sent 56 kids to SH, so 17 to Basis is actually not that huge a number... It's just got big classes.

[b]I do think PP's point is valid[/b], which is that Basis let 65% of kids who applied in, so if Basis was where everyone at these Hill schools actually wanted to go, you would see even bigger exoduses than you do/the admit rate would decrease quickly (as it has for Latin). [/quote]

Then, respectfully, you need to learn to read. PPP argued that kids from SH, Deal,, Hardy and JR don't enroll at BASIS. That is what they wrote. (Set aside for the moment they didn't know Watkins fed to SH). Do you really think this point is valid when the data shows us the opposite? Your reply focusing on admit % is equally as mind numbingly ignorant. Whatever the admit numbers (unless they are 100%) since the lottery is pure chance the admissions should track demand, which means demand comes precisely from where PPP said it does not.

The concept you've introduced is nonsense as well. Since BASIS is pure lotter and admits only 65%, we don't know how many kids would have escaped if they could have. Furthermore, you've gone and done that DCUM thing where you argue a case not made about BASIS isn't true. Problem is, no one suggested all kids from Watkins go to or want to go to BASIS. You are seeking to disprove something no one suggested was so. 
     [/quote]

I genuinely don't understand your reply. PP said Basis didn't appeal broadly. I don't know if that was the best way to put it, but I do think probably only 1/3 of kids at Hill schools want to go; it's more like 75% for Latin. Because it's very hard to get into Latin, EH has a chance to take root even if Basis continues to have a high percentage admit rate. (If Latin, in contrast, had a similar percentage admit rate, it would have a much more negative effect on EH.) If Hill schools are losing <25% of their class to a school that takes 65% of all kids, obviously that's statistically meaningful re: applicant numbers even if it's a lottery.[/quote]

I think EH is on a good trajectory. That is in no way exclusive of my issues with people having the gall to post nonsense in the face of actual data. You are also defending EH when no one (at least not I) took a shot at it. Far from it, I pointed out the demand for BASIS is all other the map, including from Hardy, Deal and SH boundaries. Also, the quote from the moron you keep defending was: "People with rights to Deal and Hardy and Stuart-Hobson, and feeders for DCI, don't choose BASIS in significant numbers"? That is wrong. [/quote]

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