Reply to Will Montgomery County ever recover?

Forum Index » Real Estate

Reply to "Will Montgomery County ever recover?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]Anonymous wrote:
Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

if say NOVA becomes the SV equivalent, then maybe MOCO would be the east bay (Union City, Fremont, Hayward), so a SFH in palo alto would be 3 million, while they are 1 million in fremont and union city as all the poor people get pushed into those areas. It would have still gone up like 2 found over 10-15 years, not bad, but nowhere close to the 4-5x that would have happened in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Mountain View or even SF.[/quote]

There are a lot of tech businesses in Fremont and the rest of east bay is filled with major tech companies too. The Bay Area isn't comparable for many reasons. Tech industry is spread out now. Inventories are very low because there are very few large multi-story apartment or condo buildings. The property taxes freezes when you buy your house so retirees don't sell. The geography of the bay and mountains encloses the area. Drive down 280 which is right under Palo Alto/SV and you see vast open areas of hills and the reservoir that can't be developed.

Businesses will keep expanding into NOVA and there is lots of room. I can't believe the prices you see now in Annandale and Falls Church. There are many more burbs in NOVA that people can expand into and redevelop. I suspect that VA will be aggressive about building more transit and housing development since they have a cash cow on their hands.

What I see already in Montgomery County is that almost everyone works for a non-profit, is a low to mid level Fed in one of the agencies in MD or DC that happen to pay less, work for the county government, schools, or other municipal job or is associated with a small medical practice that doesn't have a high profit margin. These types of jobs have pretty stagnant wage growth. There is a lower ceiling of affordability for even the educated, professional MoCo residents. [/quote]

Not sure what towns in MoCo you're referring to, but the jobs you described don't really cover most of the people residing in Potomac, Bethesda, or even parts of Rockville where people are currently paying 900K-1M for a home... [/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics