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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]And while "child prodigies" (one-sided candidates) may "reach a high level", these research results may put current Ivy admission philosophy into question. Colleges started to look for "big spikes" because - and I am generalizing - they appear to believe that (i) early success predicts the future and (ii) "one-sided students" are more likely to become famous and bring extra spotlight to their alma mater. If this does not hold true, the current approach to college admissions (look out for "big spikes") may be short-lived. [/quote]
I guess it remains to be seen, I think it depends on how big of a spike we are talking about.

I'll address chess specifically: Güllich compares top-10 junior players (~14 y.o.) with top-10 adults, and finds only 10% correlation.  Fair enough -- and keep in mind that due to the use of modern chess engines, the understanding of theory and strategy has been evolving unusually fast in the recent years, so that's an additional factor -- the knowledge you drilled down as teen a may not be applicable a few years down the road.  But still, I bet every single top-10 adult player was at the very least a top-100 player as a junior --  itself a huge spike.  If you look at the very best players, like Gary and Magnus, they were certainly extremely remarkable record-beaters at 12-13 and unquestionably dominant by 18.  By the end of high school, every top player is a very strong GM (which usually means they have spent an inordinate amount of time training for and participating in the tournaments).  So, yes, if colleges are interested in getting very strong chess players, the "spike" is exactly what they should be looking for.
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