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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][twitter]https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1803765173548617875?s=46&t=kf1qYlCXQnKgUhJWEIu2vg[/twitter][/quote] National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states? Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.[/quote] Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats. :roll: [/quote] Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017. No one is depressed.[/quote] Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.[/quote] Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is. This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key. That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump. [/quote] And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.[/quote] I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them. Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst. [/quote] The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit[b] if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were [/b]but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent. [/quote] McCain and Romney are no longer considered part of the GOP. The Party has moved further to the crazy (won't even call it the right of conservative, because it isn't)[/quote] Everyone knows those two were RINOS, not Republicans.[/quote] ??? Sarcasm?[/quote] No, not sarcasm. Just thoughtless rhetoric from someone who has no idea what Republican and Democratic ideals are.[/quote]
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