Reply to No change in coivd cases and deaths after spring break and no masks wtf

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that for every 100 cases in the U.S., only 6-7 are officially recorded in our surveillance systems.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=resource-use&tab=trend&resource=all_resources

For example, on March 31, 2022 IMHE reported 27,400 cases but estimated 404,600 “true” cases due to underreporting and asymptomatic infection. This gap has dramatically widened over time.

During the peak Delta wave, an estimated 43% of cases were reported. During Omicron, about 26% of cases were recorded. Right now, an estimated 7% of cases are reported, which is abysmally low.

We are now totally flying blind.
[/quote]

Do you realize what this dramatic underestimation of the denominator means for our existing assessments of the risk the virus poses to the average person?[/quote]

Why don't you tell us the risk of a vaccinated person getting COVID and having symptoms for a week or more?

What is the risk of a vaccinated and boosted person experiencing long COVID symptoms?

Show us the data you are using for your superior risk assessment. [/quote]

Did you understand my comment? My point is that the risk a Covid infection poses to the average person is much lower than our current estimates, which are based on a known denominator of recorded cases, suggest. It is impossible to know what the exact probability of the outcomes you are asking about is, but it is certainly much lower than you would think based on recorded cases.

That's why the study from Germany on Covid risk to children was so superior. They used seroprevalence data to determine the denominator.[/quote]

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