Reply to Any other families finally had enough of DC?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census. [/quote]

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.[/quote]
It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.[/quote]

The count was completed in April. You really think the city’s population shrank by April? Weeks after schools closed, with nothing else open anywhere in the region, and before any of the protests that people seem to think somehow caused crime waves and/or before most of the homicides being cited here as a reason to leave?[/quote]
You personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible? Fascinating. I am sure that you have evidence to support this theory?
[/quote]

Of course it's possible, but what seems likelier to you:

1) The city's population had been growing steadily for years, but then suddenly dropped between July 1, 2019, when the 2019 estimate was from, and April 1, 2020, the census count day, i.e., the day when you're supposed to say where you were living for purposes of the count. This population drop ostensibly occurred because of factors that mostly happened after April.
2) The city's population grew 14 percent between the 2010 Census and the 2020 Census, which are both actual counts as opposed to estimates based on samples, and the 2019 estimate turned out to be inaccurate when compared to the actual count.

Obviously people left D.C. last year (and died), but people also moved here (and were born). It's certainly possible that more people left than moved in, but comparing the 2019 estimate with the 2020 count isn't a valid way of demonstrating that.[/quote]
2020 was an election year, with a likely change of administration during a global pandemic where colleges closed and there was a sudden and deep recession that particularly affected tourism, restaurants and services. So yes, I do believe that it is likely that the population decreased from April 2019 to April 2020.[/quote]

The sudden recession started two and a half weeks before the count. Massive numbers of Washingtonians did not move out of town that quickly, especially since the recession was nationwide. And elections never lead to major population turnover here; just see the quadrennial "how will the election affect real estate???" posts on the real estate forum on DCUM, or if you want real evidence, look at the many studies that have shown that most people who take jobs in new administrations were already here working in non-exec branch positions.[/quote]

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