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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][twitter]https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1803765173548617875?s=46&t=kf1qYlCXQnKgUhJWEIu2vg[/twitter][/quote]

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.[/quote]

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes!  I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.  :roll: [/quote]

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.[/quote]

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.[/quote]

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump. [/quote]

It is possible for Trump to win. His opponent's weakness and the misguided fools that continue to support him make it possible. While it is possible for Trump to win, there still is no reasonable argument for why he should be POTUS again. Integrity is the most important trait for a POTUS to have and Trump simply doesn't have the integrity a worthy POTUS needs to have.[/quote]

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