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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]^^^^ Also, forgot to add that the new Food Star development will be within the Barcroft neighborhood. I do think it will be a game changer. Already seeing that with SFH's being torn down and replaced with new builds. Schools will lag real estate, though, that's pretty much always the case. [/quote]

I don't think that development will help the school demographics. I predict dinks and retirees. 
It will boost property values nearby. Everyone's walk score improves, and it will hopefully spur more upscale development nearby. The part of the pike is on a precipice. It will either go the way of penrose, or the west end of the pike. Hopefully the new development will seal the deal as a second penrose. [/quote]

Well, the demographics of Henry and TJ Middle have certainly changed since the Penrose development signaled to enough higher SES families that this was an acceptable place to live. I would imagine the same will happen around Food Star. [/quote]

Not really. Ever since my kids started at Henry years ago (when it had a GS score of 6), it always had FARMS numbers hovering around 40%. Some years higher and some lower. It's definitely trending lower now, but not by much. Next year they lose their Title 1 funding, though.

If you look at the Race/Ethnicity data, the percentage of whites enrolled has been pretty steady, around 30-40%. The percentage of Hispanics has also been pretty steady - 30-40%.

It's still an incredibly diverse school. [/quote]

While it doesn't track exactly with the Penrose development, there has been a dramatic increase in percentage of white students at Henry since 2002, from 19.5% to 38.5% in 2015. That's a significant change and for lack of more information about SES (because the APS website is under construction and I can't access the FARM numbers right now), I would bet that there has been a significant increase in percentage of higher SES, and decrease in percentage of lower SES students in that same time, regardless of race. I don't remember but I think Penrose opened in like 2010, but can anyone tell me how long the development had been planned or talked about prior to ground breaking? I know it was under construction for at least 2 years, which would put us back to 2008. I think it takes at least 2 years for site plans to be submitted and approved, putting us back to at least 2006. Anyone know if the plans were widely known prior to 2006? Looks like the white student demographic increased a point in 2003, steady in 2004, and up 3 points in 2005. And then up every year since. I'm not sure that's coincidence. If you build it ("it" being a coffee shop, yoga studio, wine bar) they will come. Let's check back on the area around Food Star in 10 years.

[/quote]

Penrose had no effect on Henry that early, i.e. around 2006. The streetcar, on the other hand, had been planned since the early 90s, but I doubt that had any effect either. More families with kids [b]simply found the neighborhood attractive[/b]. Henry wasn't a year-round school, and the homes were less expensive than those further north. [/quote]

What made the neighborhood attractive, though? Ease of commute to DC, decent/relatively affordable housing stock (compared to N. Arlington), and nearby amenities. The school was not the draw, at least not back then. It was not stellar w/regard to test scores, not so different demographically from surrounding schools, and the school facilities were/are pretty old. And the housing stock is essentially identical to that in areas further west and south on the Pike, though you are a few stop lights closer to the Pentagon and DC than areas to the west. The Streetcar speculation certainly helped speed the gentrification of this area along, but I don't think its demise means the Pike will stall completely. It may not be the juggernaut of development that it might have been, but I'm still pretty optimistic for the areas to the east of Four Mile Run. Areas to the west of Four Mile Run are probably a lost cause for gentrification given the concentration of affordable housing and the amount of land that the AH developers still own there and intend to build on. And if the density of housing that was envisioned does come to be, we're going to need a better transit solution than more buses. Not to fuel more development, but just to cope with demand.

But circling back to Penrose Square, I think that development made it clear what future was envisioned for this area. Just like the redeveloped Food Star site will. National grocery chain? Yes. Food Star, no. Yoga/Fitness/Martial Arts studio? Yes. Title Max, no. Dry Cleaners? Yes. Laundromat, no. Coffee shop? Yes. 7-11, no. Outdoor cafe seating, water features, floral garden? Yes. Big open field that could be used for pick-up soccer games? No. Quite clear what is being telegraphed here. We'll see if the message is received. [/quote]

Yeah, this. Penrose gives hope to homeowners further west, that they can possibly have it all. It was absolutely that development ( and the prospect of it), that made that area. It still has quite a bit of market rate affordable- filmore gardens is over there, yet managed to have great schools and walkability.
When you see what the county has allowed and encouraged to happen in the west side, it's fucking unbelievable. I really can't believe the homeowners over there didn't organize sooner. CARD was too little too late. Maybe with Garvery coming out and saying - we've concentrated too much over there - might spare the central part of the Pike. 
I just don't see how Barcroft comes back. I can see how you get Randolph with better demographics, Barcroft will be tough. When do we start talking about boundaries?  We'll see just how much south Arlington has changed. Will it be as ugly as it was in north Arlington? [/quote]

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