Reply to APS Construction - Never believe their schedules

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Reply to "APS Construction - Never believe their schedules"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Come on.  We are all just talking out of our a**es here, aren't we?  Besides the actual and predicted enrollment figures, which I also cited (and in more detail than you), what data are YOU relying on?  I'm trying to use common sense, just like you.[/quote]

I think the point is that there is a lot of reason to question the accuracy of the enrollment numbers more than 5 years out because: (1) those kids are babies or not even born yet; (2) we have no idea what is going to happen to the County affordable housing proposals, which do include new multi-family units in Westover and along Lee Highway; (3) past enrollment numbers have been wrong, sometimes by a lot, which you can see if you look at the projected vs. real enrollment for the current school year; and (4) nobody knows how the middle and high school conversations will change ES enrollment (e.g., families could start moving around to get into a different pyramid if a 4th high school is built).

All that to say, we have real numbers, representing real kids NOW that show McKinley (and Ashawn, for that matter) will continue to be among the largest elementary schools in the county AND over-enrolled. And you also have smaller schools elsewhere in N. Arlington that have capacity, and will continue to have it for the next few years (e.g., Discovery & Jamestown). You can see that looking at the APS spreadsheet. This is why it is maddening when APS officials tell you that they won't make any adjustments because "everything will eventually come back in balance" 5-10 years out. Seriously, you really think that APS knows that McKinley will have exactly 676 kids in 2023 and that's why we should be content with the enrollment numbers they are giving us now? [/quote]

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