Reply to Did everyone land?

Forum Index » DC Public and Public Charter Schools

Reply to "Did everyone land?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The same number of students get into the desirable spots either way in this scenario.  Thus, every student still has the same chance to get one of the 12 spots.  The only difference is that with one lottery you know earlier whether you got into your chosen school, a different school, or got shut out.  [/quote]

You still don't understand the difference between one single student's odds of getting into 12 schools in 12 different lotteries vs. 12 schools in 1 lottery.  No one is arguing the fact that at the end of the day, there are only X number of spots with Y numbers of people looking and only X students will end up in those spots.  Yes, we all understand that part.[/quote]

Each lottery is for only a fraction of the total pot.  Thus the chances in each individual lottery are less than the chances of getting into any of the schools in the larger lottery.

Ex.  2 schools, 1 space in each.  10 students applying.  If there are two lotteries, the student has a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school A and a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school B.  Thus, the student has a 2 in 10 (1 in 5) chance of getting into either school.  If there is one lottery, the student has a 2 in 10 (or 1 in 5) chance of getting into one of the schools.  See how it is the same.  Do you need another example?[/quote]

You're assuming that all things are equal in this example.  They are not.  Under the old system, child had a 1 in 10 chance at one school and a 1 in 500 chance at another school and each of those odds operated independently of each other.  Under the new system with the single draw, a poor number rules them out of every single option, even the ones where the odds would have been pretty good.[/quote]

But you are missing part of the equation. First, because you can only choose 12 schools, not every student will be in every pool. That reduces the size of some pools. And secondly, after each round, a certain number of students have been matched and are no longer in the pools, thereby increasing the odds of a match for students who are still in the mix.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics