Reply to Poll shows the debate only changed 7% of people's minds...

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]...about whether Biden is cognitively capable of being president.

65% saw him as unfit for office prior to the debate, and that only went up to 72%

https://mol.im/a/13585619

Notwithstanding this, the race is still tight, meaning that a sizable percentage of people (~20%) are okay voting for someone they view as cognitively unfit to lead the free world.

This is interesting because I got the impression from DCUM that there was widespread ignorance about Biden’s... let's call it affect. DCUM has consistently expressed a belief that Biden is spry and mentally agile, particularly when compared to his opponent Trump. While some DCUMers have since acknowledged that they ignored the signs, many are committed to a belief that either Biden is okay, or that his cognitive health is irrelevant to his job performance. By the numbers, this means DCUM is basically inhabited by among the most committed and perhaps extreme supporters on the left. [/quote]

"Only" 7%? This makes it sound like a 7% shift is trivial. That is a big shift.
[/quote]

It definitely matters because it's a swing vote shift. 70% to 80% of all voters are the lower IQ sheep that will vote for any and all candidates put forth by their party of choice every election. It's the 20% to 30% of independent/uncommitted/swing voters that matter and 7% is a large chunk of those folks.[/quote]

I doubt it is as high as 7%. Most people had their minds made up.[/quote]

All of this ignores GenZ. Many of whom turned 18 after 2020. To those of us living with them (or not while they’re in college, many in swing states) it looks like they’ve been forgotten.[/quote]

Do you remember the footage of college students lined up to vote during the mid term elections? They know what’s at stake and I doubt they will sit this one out.[/quote]

Young people and 1st time voters aren't predictable or reliable. In the case of the 2024 election, I can't see them being duped into voting for Trump or Biden like we'll see with so many of the older folks that refuse to admit they were wrong. They'll look at two elderly people that have no business being POTUS until 2029 on the major party tickets and most will vote 3rd party or choose not to vote at all. Can't say I blame them. Let's hope Biden drops out of the race so we don't have to worry about this.[/quote]

But the 2022 and 2023 elections seem to counter your argument.  Once abortion rigths are on the ballot, as they were in 2022 and 2023 in Kansas, Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia, the 18-35 demographics came out in record numbers.  Many who had never voted, registered.  And many who had been registered, but never voted, voted.  And they came out about 60-85% in favor of the abortion rights issue.  This year, you have a candidate who is beholden to his conservative base who will be pushed very hard by his die hard followers, to try and legislate and pass nationwide abortion bans.  He has come out and said he would not push for that, but he has not said that if Congress sends him a bill, that he will not sign it.  He's only said he will not push the legislation himself.  Additionally, he has been known to frequently lie about his platform.  He will say whatever is expedient and do whatever is in his own best interests, consistently.  So, if Congress sends him a bill and it is in his best interest to sign it, he will sign it.  If he can bargain some personal gain for himself, he'll sign it.

Young voters know very well that the Republican ticket will be advocating for and try hard to pass a national abortion ban law.  And they know that Democrats will try to prevent that and secure more abortion rights nation-wide.  And who is most impacted by having abortion rights?  Those voters who are in their prime child-bearing years and who will have to make the most decisions about family planning, e.g. the 18-24 and 25-34 year old demographics.  These are the people who will have to decide whether a child will completely change their lives and life plans, who will have to decide whether a child with severe complications will work for their family, whether the child is important enough to risk the mother's health and or life, and so on.  They want to have the choice to do what is best based on what their doctor's recommend, so they want to have the options that families have had for the last 50 years.

Also remember that those who are under 26 were not eligible to vote in 2016 and those who are under 22 were not eligible to vote in 2020.  There are a lot of people who have not had the option to weigh in on whether these candidates were the right choices, and now they do.  And with one of the most important issues for themselves on the ballot, they'll come out to vote.  Those demographics care much more about whether they have the personal right to make a choice about if, whether, or when to have a family than about immigration and illegal aliens.[/quote]
+1

A lot of voters really thought the GOP would never really grab that third rail. How many (pro choice!) people on this site told us we were crazy for saying where we thought the Republican Party was going to go with abortion? “Hysterical” was a word thrown around with a lot of regularity (without a trace of irony as to where that word came from).

The media is bending over backward for Trump. Once again they are not talking about his drawbacks, all of which are far more numerous than they were in 2016 or even in 2020. They don’t mention abortion or the millions of lives already affected by the loss of it, they don’t mention his treason, they don’t mention Project 2025. But I think despite that, and the loss of Twitter as a functional site for sane people, young voters are going to come out in droves for Biden and the Democrats. What the GOP offers is too awful to ignore, [/quote]

The more likely scenario is that Trump is elected by these voters and blue leaning people split their ticket favoring democrats down ballot. If they show up at all. [/quote]

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