Reply to BASIS Equitable Access Preference

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]According to the email, 34% of all the applications BASIS receives are from at-risk students suggests that these families want to go to BASIS. Maybe Latin has a much lower percentage overall.[/quote]

Oddly it's about the same for middle school but a lot higher for high school at Latin. 19%.[/quote]

Might be the rich kids peeling off to private HS or Walls[/quote]

Yeah, I don't think that's odd at all. Latin is a great environment (contra BASIS), but it's academics aren't great. [b]Lots of UMC parents go there intending to move their kid to private or Walls or suburbia for 9th.[/b] It's actually part of the reason the Latin college admissions aren't as good as you think when you look at your kid's 5th grade Latin class; it's because the chunk that leaves pre-9th is decidedly not random.[/quote]

I mean, I knew that, I just didn't realize the change would be so large. 7.39% to 19%-- that's a lot.[/quote]

I don't know many families that leave Latin in 9th. There aren't a lot of new seats in 9th either (maybe 10?), so I'm not seeing the movement your post suggests. Is there evidence of this somewhere I'm not looking?

[/quote]

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Note there's two entries, Latin High School and Latin High School EA. [/quote]

I'm really not trying to argue with you, I'm just curious and thinking about Latin for middle school (and high school). I still don't see the evidence of people leaving Latin after 8th. The spreadsheet you posted shows 18 new seats offered in Latin 9th (15 regular seats, 3 EA seats). However, that doesn't necessarily mean 18 kids left. Latin could just be adding 18 new seats. [/quote]

Yes, that's true. I don't think we really have a specific answer to your question. But the OSSE enrollment spreadsheets do show a 9th grade class almost exactly the same size as the 8th grade class, so I would have to think it's backfilling for people who leave, rather than expanding.

You could look at this data set, which shows Latin 8th graders going to Ellington, Walls, WLA, and out of the public school system, but in unspecified numbers.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways[/quote]

You have to nearly triple the at-risk percentage in the same size class somehow... Obviously they aren't the exact same kids, so some of the difference could be normal variation, but the pattern is similar in past years. The HS is more than 2x as at-risk as the middle school. The classes are the same size. I don't know how you could get there without assuming you are losing a non-trivial non-at risk kids & gaining a non-trivial number of at risk kids. We're talking about a swing of MORE THAN 10% of the class.[/quote]

Well, they have about 95 kids in each class. So that's a swing of 10-12 kids. And they consistently make 20-25 lottery offers for 9th. So if the 9th grade kids are disproportionately at-risk, and the attrition from the 8th grade class is weighted to not-at-risk, I see how those two factors could combine for a swing of 10-12 kids.[/quote]

I haven't checked the numbers on this, but is some of this just that the school is changing demographics over time? If the school is gradually admitting classes that are less at risk (due to who applies, the self-reinforcing nature of the sibling preference, etc.), the high school would have higher at risk numbers than the middle school even if nobody left. But if the high school in 2022 has higher at-risk rates than the middle school in 2019, that would indicate there is some disproportionality in who leaves, who stays, and who gets in at 9th grade. [/quote]

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