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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Yep we are the older people everyone likes to blame at the moment.  3000 sq ft house in a good school district, almost paid off.  more house than we need or want and we would love to downsize, but the way prices are, a smaller house would be more than we paid for our original house and with a mortgage would actually cost more than we are paying at the moment.  we don't want to stay put, but it doesn't make any sense to move. [/quote]

The only thing I can think of, what happens to good school districts with old people not budging to downsize down the road? Not enough kids going to those school districts. [/quote]

I can answer this. I live on the west coast and we have been thinking about leaving our $1.5M house in the city school district to buy into a very good school district in a self-contained smaller city with its own police/schools/utilities/parks. To afford a house there we’ll need to leave our 3% mortgage and pay at least $2.5M.

While doing research, we found a ton of consulting and demographic reports from school board meetings and realized that the very good school district is rapidly shrinking- graduating HS classes are going from 400 this year to a projected 300 when my DD will be in HS. They plan to close at least one elementary soon but need to update several buildings in the meantime. The problem? When they’ll need to put a levy up for vote the majority of voters will be >55 and in 10 years the majority will be >65.  The area has strong zoning and discourages condos, apartments and assisted living, so most residents plan to age in place.

I think the schools will bounce back, but high housing costs in our area and younger families locked out of houses in “good” districts mean it will take the older generation dying for a reset. And then schools will be stretched for a while to accommodate the rush of new families- that’s what happened in my childhood suburb.
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