Reply to Waitlist Movement Updates

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).  [/quote]

Surprised they’re taking that many 5th graders. With the number of kids returning for 9th, that building is going to be stuffed to the gills. [/quote]

They would have known how many are returning before they decided how many 5th grade spots to open up.

I figured instead of reading more DCUM "opinions" on how full the building will or won't be and/or listening to DCUM assume they know more about enrollment patterns and data than a school would, I'd pull up historical data and see what it tells us. A couple of interesting things jump out:

*From 5th to 6th Basis lost 20 students this year. That is more than in the prior 3 years (13,10,14 respectively)
*This year's 6th and 7th grade classes (115 and 110) are smaller than the prior years' (128 and 118) by a combined 21 students
*This year's 8th grade class is the largest since 2017-2018 (92)
*This year's 12th grade class is the largest since 2017-2018 (52)
*This year's total enrollment (650) is down 13 from 20-21 and up 10 from 19-20
*5th grade enrollments for past 4 years are: 129,135,141,144,137

My conclusions are as follows:

1. The data is clear as mud with respect to trend lines and reenrollments. For every grade that has increased retention in one year that falls off in another. People with an agenda or preconceived notion may try and draw conclusions from these moving numbers but I would argue that no data scientist could rely on these numbers as statistically significant to draw any firm conclusions
2. Having said that, it would be truly anomalous for 90 of 92 8th graders to return for 9th grade. That's not a prediction, just an observation. In the last 4 years there have been 18,8,37,32 enrollment decreases from 8th to 9th. To lose only 2 would be a stark change.
3. Even if 90 kids return for 9th and 135 are admitted for 5th, considering the annual average attrition in all grades (but assuming artificially low attrition for 9th), and considering that audited enrollment data historically sheds a few 5th graders between enrollment and count day, the number of total students in the building will be about the same as it this year.

Global conclusion: Basis knows more about their enrollment than random DCUM know-it-alls

1. 
    [/quote]

Thanks for putting this out today.  Just a few thoughts:

1.  You are using count day totals from early in the school year, right?

2.  Basis has said that it expects that 80-90 will enroll for 9th grade.  Assuming that the count day total in October was 92, the 80-90 estimate is certainly in line with what the school said.

3.  Basis has reported that, so far at least, only three or so 8th grader not enrolling for 9th.  If accurate, that would put the number enrolling in 9th grade in the upper 80s.

4.  Seems like kids would benefit from having fewer kids in each class, so I am not sure it is a bad thing if some kids enroll elsewhere.  In comparison, Wilson usually enrolls 500-525 for 9th grade.

5.  The school has stated that more and more students are staying at Basis, and that the school sees almost no attribution after 9th grade.  As a result, it will probably limit 5th grade admissions next year. [/quote]

Correct, data was OSSE audited enrollment data from each school year.

Basis's attrition from 9th to 10th over the last 5 years (SY22,SY21,SY20,SY19,SY18) is 6,6,4,4; from 10th to 11th 4,0,3,1; from 11th to 12th 1,3,0,3. In 9th it was 18,8,37,32. It is not clear to me how Basis can draw any conclusions on trendlines from that data. Factor in Covid and who knows what the heck it all means.

Over the past 4 years Basis has lost per year on average 87.25 students (total in all rising grades) to attrition, 8.75 of that total coming from combined rising 10th-12th graders and 23.75 of it coming from rising 9th graders alone. Given the outsized importance on enrollment of attrition for rising 9th graders and the relatively stable 10th+ attrition rates, it seems to be what will determine whether they need to shrink 5th grade going forward is whether the (anticipated) 9th grade re-enrollment is a one year blip or a coming trendline.

Stepping away from the data for a moment, I could see increased retention in 9th becoming the norm. I would think, however, that the attrition in 6th,7th (and maybe even 8th) is unlikely to come down materially. My hypothesis is based on what I think I know about the Basis rigor and test-centric environment in a strict lottery admission environment. If that is the case it will be interesting to see where 5th grade class sizes ultimately settle because they will always need to start with enough kids to attrite 10-20% in 6th, 7th (and maybe 8th).   [/quote]

Me again. I should also have stated up front that the Basis data can't really be compared to any other school's data because it is the only school (of which I know) that does not back fill slots...ever (save for a rounding error in 6th). Please don't waste your time replying to this with data from other schools in some weird effort to diminish Basis on the basis of enrollment/reenrollment data. It would be a complete misuse and misunderstanding of the data.[/quote]

LAMB doesn’t backfill. [/quote]

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