Reply to ANC3D Discussion on Foxhall Elementary / Old Hardy

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]yep, those enrollment projections from the weeds are what I'm waiting for...[/quote]

I recommend Nick Keenan's seminal article about the 2019 Master Facilities Plan:
https://ggwash.org/view/71802/can-dcps-survive-the-coming-enrollment-surge

He went through the details of the demographic projections and I think you'll find the answers you're looking for. Money quote:

[quote]For most of the past 50 years, DC Public Schools (DCPS) has had way too many schools, and the most pressing facilities issue for the agency has been how to close and dispose of unneeded buildings in an orderly manner. Even though DC has gained over 22,000 public school students since 2008, and between 2008 and 2013 DCPS shrunk from 134 to 110 schools, the number of seats still exceeds the number of students by about 25%.

Today, DCPS has a capacity of 61,925 seats and only 48,043 students, according to the Master Facilities Plan. However, if the projections hold, by 2027 – which is only eight years away – DCPS will have 61,697 students. For the first time in 60 years—two generations—DCPS is going to be full. And it's likely going to grow from there.[/quote]

He also talks about age-group imbalance -- more seats are needed in the younger grades -- and geographic imbalance -- more seats are needed in the western half of the city. [/quote]

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