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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]And the other issue is that top students are applying to more colleges now than they did in 2013, and 2003, and 1993...So you are competing with the top .1% at elite schools over and over.[/quote]
No. Every student can attend only one college. The top schools don't lose out because they competed for the same top students. Only lower ranked schools lose out. The top slots fill up, and it's the same (or a higher number) for a declining number of applicants, so from an applicant's perspective the required relative standing has become lower.  Seems counterintuitive (especially given the impression that absolute standards have risen), but is undoubtedly true.

The number of applications sent out also has nothing to do with it, for the same reason that a student can attend only one school.
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Yes, students can only go to one college.  But when the top .1% caliber students are applying to all of the top 20 colleges instead of 1, it's a lot harder for a top 1-5% caliber student to get in.  There's less likelihood of error where the top .1% student won't get in to one of them.

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No. Students applying to more colleges has in fact the opposite effect. In fact, if all students applied to all colleges (as I think you assume for the "top .1% caliber" students), and if all colleges meet their enrollment goals, there's no risk of anomalies at all.  All top-20 slots would be filled with top .1% caliber students.

The important effect is that the number of "top .1% caliber" students has decreased by 11%, but the number of slots available for them has not. Therefore, even and especially if all students apply to all schools, now the top .11% caliber of students go to top-20 schools. So there are some top .11% caliber, but not quite 0.1% caliber students who didn't get to a top 20 school but who do now.

If, on the other hand, each student applied to only one school, then there could be a large number of students who didn't get their top pick (since each school admits only a limited number) and who would now be enrolling at a school much lower than what their relative peer ranking would imply. The more schools students on average apply to, the less likely such anomalies are to happen. When each student applies to all schools, these anomalies cannot happen at all (assuming all top-20 schools meet their enrollment targets, which so far has been the case).

Here's another attempt at explaining the math. Imagine you have 100 kids who want lollipops.  There are 10 lollipops.  So 10 out of 100 kids get lollipops.  The next year, there are only 90 kids and still 10 lollipops. Now 10 out of 90 kids get lollipops.  Which group would you rather be in, the previous year where 100 kids fought for the lollipops or the group where only 90 did?
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There could be two things simultaneously happening.  First, the number of kids applying to college overall is going down.  Second, the number of kids with exceptional credentials could be going up (albeit only slightly).  There could be a number of reasons for the second point, if true.[/quote]

There could also be changes in how the "elite" colleges recruit and provide financial aid that make those colleges more accessible to a wider range of highly qualified candidates than before.  When you combine that with the common app making it less burdensome to apply to more schools, you could get a larger qualified applicant pool *for some of the most highly sought after schools* than general demographics would predict.  As an anecdote, I was a National Merit Scholar, from a real middle class family in "flyover country" (not DC "middle class") and I didn't bother to apply to the Ivy League in the 80's because I didn't think my family could afford it, even with financial aid. If a student like that were accepted to Harvard today, they would be pay very little, if any, tuition. And the Common App makes it easier to apply and find out if it is possible.

As for the perception that UVA admission has become more competitive, I think the cause is the same as VT's over enrollment. Students have wised up and realized that student loan debt is bad and these state schools (in particular) are a great deal. [/quote]

The top 50 or so national universities and top 25 or so LACs seem to be getting generally more competitive for admissions, with it more pronounced for the very top schools. The remaining schools seem to holding their ground or more likely becoming less competitive due to declining applications.  The other phenomenon is that applications to specific programs driven by STEM trends or competition for top students(e.g. VT Engineering, VCU medical school pre-admit, flagship honors programs -- UVA cited competition from programs like University of South Carolina honors as competition for OOS students) is becoming a bigger factor.

Everyone looks at overall admission rate to UVA and stats trends, but they can be misleading.  Overall HS GPAs have gone up significantly due to grade inflation, so it doesn't make a great historical comparison, and the SAT has changed several times.  UVA gets most of its applications from OOS, accepts only about 20% now, and only gets about 24% of those to enroll.   OOS differs markedly from in-state.

The better indicator is probably in-state acceptance rate, which averaged about 45% from 2005-2017 and never dropped below 40%, but hit 38.4% in 2018.  So UVA is now at a historically low level, and rates in Nova are also lower.  Virginia Tech has never been below 60% in-state admission rate in that period, but is also trending down at 60.2% in 2018.  With VT, engineering and the rest of the university diverge in selectivity.   W&M averaged about 43% from 2005-2017 and had sub 40% admissions rates in 2009 and 2010, but was at 45% in 2018, so is still selective, but not trending down.[/quote]

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