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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Here's where things stand in the key races, in order of most likely to flip.   Could gain PA (R to D), but lose GA (D to R).  
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/22/1118389494/top-10-us-senate-seats-pennsylvania-georgia-arizona
Pennsylvania (Previous: 1)
Georgia (Previous: 2)
Very little separates the next four races, which are all expected to be extremely tight.

Georgia has remained close, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has done well so far. Republicans acknowledge that earlier efforts to try and paint Warnock as a "radical" were a mistake. It's tough to make the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church — the same post once held by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. — whose ads have featured him smiling with a beagle, look like a bad guy. Instead, the attacks to come are more likely to be simply making Warnock out to be a Democrat whose votes are out of step with Georgia.

But Georgia is about as purple as it comes now, and Warnock's Trump-backed opponent, Herschel Walker, has his issues as a candidate. Still, the former NFL and University of Georgia running back has high name ID and appeal among Republicans. [b]And Walker will likely benefit from the gubernatorial race of Republican Brian Kemp, who is currently favored to win reelection. [/b]This one will likely be a nail-biter.
Arizona (Previous: 5)
Nevada (Previous: 3)
Wisconsin (Previous: 4)
New Hampshire (Previous: 6)
North Carolina (Previous: 7)
Ohio (Previous: 8)
Florida (Previous: 9)
Colorado (Previous: 10)[/quote]

Actually I think Kemp is likely to hurt Walker among moderate Republicans who might be looking for a way to assuage their guilt for voting for Warnock or just leaving the Senate part of the ballot blank.  These things don’t always move perfectly in tandem.  For instance, Warnock did slightly better than Ossoff in 2020 among the exact same set of voters.  My theory is that there are some Republicans who, deep down inside, don’t believe Walker is qualified to be a U.S. Senator and will feel better about not voting for him because they proudly voted for Kemp.  I honestly do think people sometimes rationalize their votes this way.[/quote]

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