Reply to Enrollment/Facilities Planning in FCPS

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Has FCPS just put facilities planning and enrollment projections on indefinite hold until they find a successor to Karen Garza? Usually by mid-November they have made a presentation to the School Board on enrollment projections and a draft CIP has been made public. This year - nothing.

This is one area where FCPS had gotten much better in recent years (and is better than some other school systems). Are they just going to sit back and do nothing this year?[/quote]

Next Monday's work session (12/5) includes a two-hour discussion of "membership analysis and trends":

http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?open&id=AFTREF6DA175

[quote]Staff Contact: Jeffrey K. Platenberg, assistant superintendent, Facilities and Transportation Services
 
Other Staff Present:  Susan Quinn, chief operating officer
                                  Kevin Sneed, special projects administrator, Facilities and Transportation Services
              
Meeting Category: December 5, 2016 - Work Session
 
Subject:  Membership Analysis and Trends
                                                                        
School Board Action Required:  Discussion
 
 
Key Points:
 
Student enrollment in Fairfax County Public Schools showed moderate growth this year, in spite of the slight growth experienced last year. As has previously been communicated, various factors alter year to year membership changes and student enrollment projections. The two most important factors that influence the overall FCPS membership changes and student enrollment projections are the birth to kindergarten ratio and net migration.  A third factor that alters membership and the student enrollment projections for individual schools from year to year is student transfers due to program access needs and the student transfer regulation.   
 
Staff implemented and experienced success using a new student enrollment and demographics projection methodology in October 2015 for the five-year projections and in March 2016 for the September 30, 2016 projections. The methodology is based on best practices and includes the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. GIS technology pulls Student Information System (SIS) data by student ID number. It allows for improved sorting, tracking, and mapping of students based on their residence and actual school of attendance. This precision in data analysis and the ability to account for each student in the student enrollment projection process resulted in better projections performance predicting September 30, 2016 membership, as compared to the performance predicting the September 30, 2015 membership. Staff is continuing to adjust and refine the projection methodology as new data sets are being considered and analyzed for possible future incorporation into the methodology. 
 
For today’s work session, the Facilities and Transportation Services staff have prepared detailed information and charts that show the current conditions as well as comparison information between this year’s and last year’s membership. Information is also presented about the performance of the new student enrollment projections methodology. The latest five-year projections, projected capacity balances, and projected capacity balance maps are provided for the Board’s consideration. These projected conditions will lead to the FY 2018-22 Capital Improvement Program (CIP) recommendations which will be proposed on December 15, 2016. A CIP public hearing is scheduled for January 10, 2017. A School Board work session is scheduled for January 23, 2017. The action to vote on the FY 2018-22 Capital Improvement Program is scheduled for January 26, 2017.
 
 
Attachments: To be provided prior to the meeting.[/quote]
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