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Reply to "Nate Silver has a new prediction"
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[quote=Anonymous]Sigh. That's what happens when you only read headlines. From 538: Differences between polls-only and now-cast The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today. As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line. There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce. [/quote]
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