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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]FWIW: BaltSun poll from 3/4-8 shows:

Trump 34%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 18% 
Rubio 14%

It's at least arguable that Kasich will get the lion's share of the Rubio votes. The winner of each CD gets 3 delegates and the statewide winner gets 14 for winning the state.

Clinton was up 61-28 in the Democratic primary.

Coming up:
March 22: Arizona primary (Trump), Utah caucus (Cruz), American Samoa (Cruz??)
April 1-3: North Dakota convention -- there's no preference whereby ordinary voters have a say in ND, but if it ends up being a "super-caucus," I suspect the most-viable not-Trump will win here.
April 5: Wisconsin. If Kasich gets drubbed (as in under 15%) here he may drop out -- it's WTA, with 18 going to the state winner and 3 to each of the district winners. But ...
April 19: New York, home of Rockefeller Republicans. But also home to Donald J. Trump. Kasich might win in a closed primary here. 
April 26: The Acela Primary. Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Maryland. If Kasich can't win here, it's time to throw in the towel.

In other words: Kasich's goal is to stay alive until April, when the turf becomes much friendlier to him, at least in theory. If he can show up with say 400-500 delegates, and keep Trump from winning states in the NE and Midwest, he's done his job. If he gets in the way of Cruz being the not-Trump, he will be asked to fall on his sword.

As a popular governor with a decent track record and most notably not being a jerk (yeah, I know the professional progressives hate him, but they hate anyone to the right of Hillary and barely stand her), there will assuredly be a position for him in the Cabinet (a shame the US has no real direct equivalent to Home Minister) or as VP.

In the fall - I don't know if a protest vote for the Green or Libertarian candidate can help the party out in elections to come (in many states if they cross a threshold between 5% and 15% they are auto-qualified for the ballot for the next four years.) [/quote]

Thanks for the stats!  [/quote]

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