Reply to When Does The Critical Examination And Takedown Of Carson Begin?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele]Trump is already going after Carson and the others are probably happy to let him do their dirty work. Moreover, it is a little early to get worried about who is the flavor of the week. Cruz and Jeb! are probably more concerned with Rubio at the moment.
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Exactly correct, Mr. Steele.  Rubio is the real threat to all three of Trump, Jeb! and Cruz, but Trump had to wait to attack Rubio until Jeb! had collapsed to the point where it will be hard for him to come back.  Killing Rubio early would prompt the GOP elites to really circle the wagons around Jeb!, and had they done so they had the money and the favorable election rules that they probably could have gotten Jeb! over the finish line, much like Clinton will be for the Dems---many on that side seem to detest her, but no one can beat her.  The potential viability of both Jeb and Rubio created a space that could be exploited by non-establishment candidates.  Dr. Carson is not viable, due to his nutty religion and shady business dealings among other things, so no need to waste too much firepower on him yet, and tactically Carson soaks up a lot of the space that could otherwise be filled by someone more plausible running on the evangelical flank.

I note, those of you who think Trump is a dummy, he has played this campaign incredibly shrewdly, to the point where it is possible to imagine him winning, which I would not have expected even six months ago.

The most interesting questions at present are whether Rubio has sufficient baggage that he can be stopped---I could see that going either way---and whether Trump stays in the race long enough to keep the establishment faction from resurrecting Jeb! ala McCain in 2008.  My personal prediction is (sadly, I assure you) leaning toward the view that Rubio survives and is the nominee, whereupon he is thoroughly dismantled by the Clinton machine, which presumably has learned something from its mistakes against President Obama.

Trump has more legs than I expected, and I actually think he is the most likely GOP candidate to beat Hillary!, but I just can't bring myself to accept his nomination as a likely outcome.  And don't rule out Cruz -- he is very, very smart, and while the terrain remains unfavorable for a Cruz win, he's keeping himself in play and could sneak in at the last minute if something strange happens.  [/quote]

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