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[quote=Anonymous]18:54 again, technically every transfer is a new roll of the dice, but if you want to calculate cumulative odds of success, I believe it works like this (anyone out there who knows better feel free to correct my math!):

At SG, odds of clinical pregnancy for a single embryo transfer using DE VF are 60%.

So, say you have a fresh eSET, you have a 60% chance of pregnancy, with a 40% chance of a BFN.

If you did a second fresh cycle, you would calculate 60% times the 40% chance of a BFN (.60 x .40), which is 24%, and add that to the first cycle's 60%.

So for the two fresh cycles combined, your cumulative odds of success are 84%.

For a third fresh cycle, you'd calculate 60% of the remaining 16% chance of a BFN (.60 x .16), which is 9.6%, and add it to the 84%, so the cumulative odds of a clinical pregnancy over three cycles would be 93.6%.

For a fourth fresh cycle, you'd add 60% of the remaining 6.4% chance of a BFN (.60 x .064, or 3.84%), so now your cumulative odds are greater than 97%.

A fifth fresh cycle gets you close to 99%, while a 6th puts you over 99% (which is presumably why SG's money-back quarantee covers up to 6 cycles).

(Note that your cumulative odds NEVER reach 100% -- they get closer and closer to 100, but there's always a slim chance that an infinite number of cycles would still result in a BFN.)

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