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Reply to ""It is going to be the worst winter ever" please quote reliable source"
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[quote=Anonymous]NO ONE KNOWS! The Farmers Alamanac claims to be 80% accurate, according to a PP, but there predictions will be for a storm in the NE over a 5 day period. Guess what, most 5 day periods will have a storm in Jan-Feb. You need to test the null hypothesis: what historic percentage of the time does the prediction verify (for example, how many Feb 2-5 is there a storm that they could claim success). Then, compare that number to the the current years. I suspect you will see that there predictions vague enough such that they are always true, but not significant. As an example: I predict it will be colder on Jan 15 than July 15.[/quote]
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