Reply to Washington Post Poll vs Catania Internal Poll

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele][quote=Anonymous]Jeff, did you get a chance to see the questions that were asked?  The argument about the sampling is persuasive but I'd also like to know whether the questions were asked in a neutral manner.[/quote]

I was actually polled, so I didn't need to see the questions. The first part of the poll was pretty standard: a few random questions about the direction of the District and so on. Then, the horse race question: if the election were held today would you vote for Democrat Muriel Bowser, Independent David Catania, etc. Then, a part where messaging was tested. This part was very biased toward Catania and described how he was raised by a single mother, etc. while Bowser was linked to a bunch of scandals. Then, the horse race question was asked again. Ben assures me that they are only counting the first horse race results and that Catania was actually ahead in the second one (believable given that Catania was presented as an American dream come true while Bowser was Boss Hogg).

If I were to critique the poll, I would ding it for being automated -- though there are various opinions on this point. My main criticism is that automated polls can't call cell phones. In the Post poll, Catania did worse among cell phone respondents than among line lines. That might support the theory that younger voters are more likely to pick Bowser because of the "D" label.

In it's favor, the polling firm is well-respected and has worked for many prominent Democrats including Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren.

[/quote]

So it was an electronic push-poll?  ~snort~  Catania is in more trouble than I thought. ;)  [/quote]

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