Reply to Time to Stop Counting on Charters

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[quote=Anonymous]I had the same feeling this weekend--our best hope is a number in the high 20s for our east of the park but out of bounds school--but its unlikely to move as much as we would need to get in.  However, I think there are a few things to consider.

First, the biggest competiition is for PS3 because not all schools offer it. Most west of the park and several more charters start at PK4. By K, when a lot of kids are guaranteed at their IB schools, it is yet another shuffle.

Secondly, I'm not sure the actual chances are 1 in a 100 for charters. I'd be curious, though. Cap City, a desirable charter, got 522 applications for PS 3 (I'm in the 400s). 30 spaces, half of which are for siblings. I'm assuming that the same 522 parents, more or less, are applying for the other 'hot' to "good enough" charters (mundo verde, lamb, cap city, creative minds, stokes, bridges, haynes, Inspired teaching--if you throw in apple tree, meridian, etc, there are more).  . Let's say there's a pool of about 700 kids, more or less, applying for about an average of 15 slots at, let's say, a top 8 charter schools for PS (looking at a couple WL for ps# will give a good idea of how large the pool is).  But if each PS3 has about 12 non sibling slots, then your chances are closer to 1  in 7 of getting in at a charter, when the dust settles. Plus, many of these same 700 kids will be applying for either IB or OOB schools. So, when puzzling this out this weekend with DH, even though its depressing to get a waitlist number of 400something, my sense was that our chances were closer to 1:3 of getting into one of the 16 schools we applied to (10 charters, 6 DCPS OOB). But no, you can't really count on the charters--unless you start one yourself when your kid is 2 years away from PS3 or getting in the first year, which is how I know several families at MV and CM, got in the year it opened. [/quote]

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