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[quote=Anonymous]CWG:
We're still watching the potential for wintry weather Sunday into Monday.
We are leaning, based on the latest model data, toward a relatively minor snow accumulation mainly on Sunday night. It's just a "lean" for now because some modeling still suggests potential for more substantial accumulations (and one model shows a massive snowstorm, but it's on its own).
[b]The forecast is challenging [/b]because it’s unclear where and how fast the storm will form, and if two disturbances in the atmosphere (one to the north, and one to the south) will merge.
In the more likely event that the two disturbances do not merge, we think the snow probabilities are as follows:
* Chance of at least 1" of snow: 40 percent.
* Chance of at least 3" of snow: 25 percent.
* Chance of 6"  or more: 15 percent.
* Chance of 12" or more: 5 percent.
In the less likely event the disturbances merge, the ceiling for snow accumulation would go up quite a bit.
On Thursday morning, the American (GFS) model simulated an astonishing three feet of snow in D.C. But it was an extreme outlier among the numerous models meteorologists analyze, and has a bad track record this winter.
[b]The exact timing and details of how the storm will evolve are still very much subject to change[/b]. But here’s how we see it as of now:
* Sunday morning into afternoon: The first phase of the storm is likely to produce at least a little precipitation in the D.C. area, although there is still an outside chance the storm is a total miss. Precipitation on Sunday could be light rain or a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures are probably in the mid-30s or higher, so snow accumulation is unlikely except perhaps a light accumulation on grass.
* Sunday evening and overnight: A period of accumulating snow is possible as temperatures drop into the low 30s. Colder areas north and west of downtown D.C. have the highest chance of at least an inch of snow.
* Monday: Any snow should taper during the morning with afternoon highs rising to near 40.
(Posted 2:45pm Thursday)[/quote]

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