Reply to AI Jobpocalypse - Another angle of class warfare

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[quote=Anonymous]Here are some things we know -

The tech industry is driven by hyperbole and promises of absurd growth.  Wall Street loves eliminating jobs and automation.  Companies that are tech focused, or are actively incorporating tech advances, are viewed favorably.  Everyone in this situation has a strong incentive to play up continued advances now matter how specious.

We also know that we do not even understand intelligence, a fact that AI researches are frustrated about, having been waiting for quite some time more insight into how to construct an artificial equivalent.  The current batch of models impress with their language ability on face value.  However, they're already levered up the extreme in terms of data, resource consumption, and fiddling with the underlying model architecture.  Unlike previous advances in tech like the web and smartphones, there is no clear path forward to continued advancement.  The companies working on the models are burning many billions attempting to lure people in, however, still no killer product.  Disappointing usage given the amount of growth that needs to occur to plausibly one day turn a profit.

The models perform text completions.  There is 0 intelligence or reasoning ability.  They can plausibly automate some tasks with a human in the loop.  The industry will throw out terms such as 'reasoning' and 'agents', but it is essentially the same models just 'talking' to each other and not any form of intelligence.  The industry will continue to try and ride the hype hoping someone, somewhere, has a breakthrough.  The odds are the bubble pops and these companies go bankrupt/divest (as we already see evidence of them doing).

Where's the AGI again?  Next year?  Again next year?  The year after?  [/quote]

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