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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There are more than 11,000 fourth graders enrolled in MCPS this year, across 137 elementary schools.

Each of the two upcounty magnet middle schools has 63 seats for students who aren’t already zoned for those schools. Each of the downcounty magnet middle schools has 125 seats for students who aren’t already zoned for those schools.

That averages out to 2-3 students from each elementary school getting admitted to the magnet middle school programs.[/quote]

[b]I believe the numbers are 50 for those not in-bounds locally for the upcounty magnets and 100 for those not in-bounds locally for the downcounty  downcounty magnets. [/b] My understanding is that there are 12-13 separate program seats for students locally-in-bounds to the school, except for TPMS, which has 25.  I could be wrong about that.

If not, 
With about 300 locally in-bounds TPMS students total, there's something like an 11% overall chance of being in the magnet if living in a home zoned to TPMS.  If only about 15% of students qualify for the lottery in the first place, there would be a greater than 70% chance of getting placed in the magnet if identified as eligible.  With 100 seats for the rest of the lower ~2/3 of the county and close to 8000 students per grade (2/3 of about 12,000), 7700 taking out the 300 local to TPMS, there's something like a 1.3% overall chance of being in the magnet and under a 9% chance of getting placed if among the about 15% identified.

Whatever the actual numbers are, your chances if local, to TPMS particularly, of being offered a program seat are multiples higher than your chances if living outside the magnet's local boundary.  Unless they drop the local set-aside or shift slots from local in-bounds reserve to those offered outside the local boundary so that the odds are close to the same for each.[/quote]
This is correct. [/quote]

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