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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I was reading about the jobs report, and the WSJ had this graph.

[img]http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BH987_ECONOM_D_20120907160005.jpg[/img]

Much has been made of the first graph, although a lot of it is due to an aging population and more recently fewer teens searching for jobs.

But the real issue is clear in the bottom graph.  All sectors are trending up except construction.  And that means that our jobs problem is still a result of the overbuilding we did during the real estate bubble.  To any thinking person, the problem is clear:  the construction industry is not going to grow again until we need more housing and commercial real estate.  But we have so much excess inventory that's not going to happen.

The problem is that no government solutions are going to fix that, unless we start importing potential homeowners and businesses with a need for lots of office space.  We are going to be stuck waiting it out, until we burn through the excess that we built up in the boom.[/quote]I think you are a little bit too enamored with those trend lines. I don't know how many jobs there are in each sector. And I don't know how steep the trend line needs to be in order to accommodate the new job seekers each year (the HS and college graduates seeking employment). It is interesting to note that the construction sector experienced its low point a good year after the other sectors. It seems to be off the low now but not exactly booming, at least in terms of employment. I know the DOW has been doing well, and the stock market in general has been decent these past few years. I believe that residential construction has been a good subsector this past year. Heavy construction has been more of a mixed bag.[/quote]

I'm not "enamored".  To answer the first question, it's easy enough to see how many jobs are involved:  http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm   and the drop in construction jobs is significant.   As for the second, construction drops off a little slower because projects with construction loans get completed even after the downturn, because the developer is already in the hole for the real estate and has no choice but to go forward, and the loans are already in place.

The Dow is doing well, but construction is still down.
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