Reply to School preference and offer odds

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[quote=Anonymous]As noted above, 9th grade is weird. It's hard to get a sense of what's really happening at the application schools and many other schools that are highly sought after offer no/very few seats on match day. It's still somewhat interesting to see though that about half of the students applying to these schools are still getting elsewhere (presumably the application schools), so I'm sharing the top 15 anyway.

9th grade lottery likelihood of matching at this school or a higher ranked school on match day (likelihood to a higher ranked):

DCI Spanish - 45% (45%)
DCI Chinese - 47% (47%)
DCI French - 48% (48%)
Latin - 49% (48%)
JR - 53% (53%)
MacArthur - 54% (54%)
Latin EA - 54% (52%)
MacArthur EA - 56% (56%)
BASIS - 57% (57%)
Capital City - 61% (56%)
Sojourner Truth - 62% (56%)
Coolidge - 64% (64%)
BASIS EA - 66% (66%)
EL Haynes EA - 69% (66%)
EL Haynes - 72% (64%)

With respect to the application schools, here's how many total applicants (percent matched):

SWW - 1527 (12%)
Banneker - 1291 (19%)
McKinley - 1271 (19%)
Phelps - 461 (28%)
Bard Early College - 387 (21%)
Coolidge Early College - 219 (9%)
Ellington Visual Arts - 152 (10%)
Ellington Theater - 118 (6%)
Ellington Dance - 106 (19%)
Ellington Instrumental - 105 (19%)
Ellington Cinematic - 74 (20%)
Ellington Vocal - 56 (38%)
Ellington Tech - 46 (9%)
Ellington Museum - 39 (38%)

At the application schools I'm also wondering if the difference between matches and lottery seats indicates how many students would have matched but instead matched at higher ranked school. For instance, Phelps had 273 lottery seats but only 130 matches. Banneker 260 lottery seats but only 245 matches. Are those 15 and 143 deltas just students who would have gotten in but matched elsewhere?[/quote]

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